{"id":4465,"date":"2022-10-05T11:59:33","date_gmt":"2022-10-05T11:59:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/?p=4465"},"modified":"2022-10-05T11:59:33","modified_gmt":"2022-10-05T11:59:33","slug":"latino-voters-in-limbo-a-midterm-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/05\/latino-voters-in-limbo-a-midterm-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Latino voters in limbo; a Midterm update"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"By Equis Research<\/em><\/p>\n

Where the Latino Vote is Today: The Latino vote remains stuck in the 2020 moment.
\nMany Latino voters who in past elections have voted with Democrats are today
\npersuadable \u2014 but Republicans have so far failed to win them over.<\/p>\n

\u25cf While Latinos shifted toward Republicans between 2016 and 2020, an 8-point
\nswing toward Trump, we do not see evidence of a further decrease in
\nDemocratic support since Biden’s win. In most states, things do not look worse
\nfor Dems with Latinos than they did in the last election, nor do they look
\nbetter.
\n\u25cf Even if we are not yet seeing a decrease in our polling, the political
\nenvironment has the potential to lead to further erosion of Democratic
\nsupport among Latinos.
\n\u25cf Stated simply, conditions are unstable. There is great uncertainty in the vote
\n(and in the polling)! A meaningful share of Latino voters remain on the fence,
\nhaving not firmly chosen a side in the election. These late breakers could move
\ntoward either party, or toward the couch, before the midterms are over. For both
\nDemocrats and Republicans, it is a reminder yet again that a large segment of
\nthe Latino vote is a swing vote that must be persuaded.
\n2. For Democrats, Disaster Prevention: For Democrats and their allies, there is a strategic
\nneed to contend with the ways in which things might still get worse for their candidates
\nif they do not get ahead of the trend.
\n\u25cb We might be seeing inklings, today, of an environment slightly more favorable to
\nDems now than at any other point in the last year. But small glimmers of hope
\nshould not obscure the warning signs.
\n\u25cb Moreover, even if there is no further decline, that is no cause of celebration for
\nDemocrats: we estimate Dems need levels of Latino support in Arizona and
\nNevada beyond those they are getting today.
\n\u25cb Florida is an exception to the general trend and, perhaps, a cautionary tale: signs
\nthere point to a possible Democratic decline, due in great part to the neglect
\nfrom national Democrats after 2020. Numbers have improved of late, but
\nRepublican candidates have received consistent support throughout the cycle,
\nand are still pulling over more Hispanic Biden voters than Democrats are
\nwinning over Latino Trump defectors. There is no reasonable scenario where
\nDemocrats win Florida without a healthy majority of the Hispanic vote.
\n3. For Republicans, a Poor Sales Job: Republicans haven’t fully convinced persuadable
\nLatino voters that they are a viable alternative to Democrats, even in the midst of an
\neconomic crisis.
\n\u25cb It is premature to say that Latinos are further shifting to the GOP without
\nshowing gains beyond South TX and South FL (we wrote about the unique
\ncircumstances in both those places in our 2020 post-mortem). If Republicans
\nwant to claim that a realignment is underway, they are going to need to
\ndemonstrate it in the high-stakes environments of Nevada and Arizona, where
\nall sides are competing for Latino voters.
\n4. It\u2019s the Economy (But the Economy is Never Just the Economy): For Democrats, the
\ntask is to alleviate the concerns of Latinos who are worried that the party doesn’t share
\ntheir perspective on the economy.
\n\u25cb Concerns about the Democrats\u2019 approach to the economy rattled some Latinos
\nand allowed them to put aside other fears about Trump and Republicans in
\n2020. Today what keeps many Latinos on the fence is again concerns about the
\neconomy and fears that Democrats don’t consistently prioritize the economy,
\nhandle it as decisively as business-obsessed Republicans, or value hard work.
\n\u25cb Now, the path forward for Democrats is to remind voters that they care, fight
\nand deliver: that they are more in tune with the challenges and values of
\nhardworking people and are delivering tools for them to not just survive, but
\nthrive.
\n\u25cb For Democrats, holding on and expanding their coalition means, first, placing
\nhardworking, middle class Latino families at the center of their story, with
\npoliticians and the government in a supporting role. Second, honoring Latinos
\nand other hard-working people as the engine of the economy. And, third,
\ndemonstrating that they are fighting to ensure that hardworking Latinos have
\nthe tools they need to thrive \u2014 thinking not in terms of spending or assistance
\nbut instead of opportunities that allow Latinos to continue to provide for their
\nfamilies and work to keep our country strong.
\n\u25cb Recent legislative action gives Democrats some proof points. Communicating
\nabout the action they’ve taken on drug pricing, for example, bolsters the case
\nthat they “care, fight and deliver.” It provides an opportunity to message on the
\nopportunity it presents working people, rather than on the price tag of the
\nlegislation. And it focuses on an issue that lives at the intersection of the
\neconomy and health care, an area on which Latino voters greatly trust
\nDemocrats.
\n5. Where Other Issues Come into the Picture: The economy is top of mind for Latino
\nvoters, as for all voters. Two other issues that are coloring the political environment \u2014
\ngun safety and abortion rights \u2014 are potential weaknesses for Republicans among
\nLatino voters. Democrats have opportunities here, but run the risk of seeming
\nout-of-touch themselves if they hyper-fixate on these issues ahead of economic
\nconcerns.
\n\u25cb Don’t Forget About Uvalde: Gun violence rose to be a top-three issue for
\nLatinos in many battleground states after the shooting in Uvalde. For Latino
\nvoters, a key question of this election is: who will protect me and my family?
\nThis is true on the economy, and it is also true on an issue like responsible gun
\nownership. A strong majority of Latino voters \u2014 and an overwhelming majority
\nof Latina women \u2014 are aligned with the progressive stance on gun safety, and
\nreject the conservative position as a matter of values as much as of policy. Our
\npolling suggests that if there is a social issue for Democrats to campaign on
\nalongside the economy, it’s this.
\n\u25cb Dobbs in Contrast: While some Latino voters balk at strong progressive
\nmessaging on expanding abortion access, knowing that Republicans actively
\nplan to take away their abortion rights tends to remind persuadable Latino
\nvoters why they have previously shied away from supporting conservative
\ncandidates: the sense that Republicans are more concerned with pushing an
\nextreme agenda than helping people like them. The GOP\u2019s position, out of touch
\nwith Latinos\u2019 priorities, provides an opening for Democrats to bolster their
\ncentral economic argument by communicating how they will fight for what
\nmatters most to Latino voters.
\n\u25cb The trick for Democrats is not to engage with Latinos on issues such as
\nabortion or gun safety in place of economic concerns. For all of their grave
\nimportance, or the amount of coverage they may get, it remains likely that
\nabortion and guns will be overshadowed by economic anxieties in the minds of
\npersuadable Latino voters as they enter the ballot box. Relatedly, the heavy
\nfocus of media and Dem ad spending on the GOP\u2019s efforts to take away abortion
\nrights suggests there remains ample room for increased engagement of Latino
\nvoters on the core pocketbook contrasts between Democrats and Republicans.
\nIn any case, the top priority for Democrats remains to prove themselves on
\nthe economy, as a way to reassure Latino voters who need reassurance.
\n6. What to Watch in Senate Races: The question of the Latino vote looms large over
\nelections up and down the ballot, and especially over the battle for the US Senate \u2014
\nand not just in Las Vegas. As much as we talk in terms of national trends, midterm
\nresults will likely lend themselves to a diversity of narratives about Hispanic voters.
\n\u25cb In Nevada and Arizona, Democrats likely need to win at least 2\/3 of the Latino
\nvote to fend off GOP challenges (and Republicans likewise need to crack 1\/3 to
\npull off either state).
\n\u25cb Meanwhile, there is no reasonable scenario where Democrats win statewide in
\nFlorida without winning the Hispanic vote.
\n\u25cb Wisconsin is a state where the Latino vote is small but mighty. Support levels
\namong Latinos are critical in a narrow range of scenarios \u2014 but it just so
\nhappens that the state has found itself in that very range in 2 of the last 3 major
\nelections.
\n\u25cb Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are states where Latinos can play a
\nsupporting but critical role in a winning coalition led by Black voters. For that,
\nDemocrats need to earn at least 60% support among Latino voters.
\n7. Who are the Persuadable Latinos? For all the stories about different segments of
\nLatino voters, the uncertainty \u2014 and potential \u2014 cuts broadly across the electorate
\nright now. However, we do see certain demographics jump out as we try different ways
\nto identify voters who aren’t stuck to their current voting preferences: young Latinos,
\nLatino men of all ages, and ideological hold-outs.
\n\u25cb Declines in Biden approval have not been isolated to any one Latino
\ndemographic \u2014 a reminder that the crises of recent times have impacted
\nAmericans broadly.
\n\u25cb However, young Latinos (18-34), Latino men, and self-identified conservatives
\nare overrepresented among the set of 2020 Biden voters who today disapprove
\nof the president’s job performance.
\n\u25cb Among the most likely to be undecided today are ideological hold-outs:
\nconservative and moderate Latinos who have held back from Republicans,
\ndespite seeming to share some characteristics with their GOP-supporting white
\ncounterparts. Notably Republicans have not increased support among these
\nLatinos in the last year in almost any state \u2014 likely because a large majority of
\nconservative or moderate Latinos who don’t yet vote Republican believe
\nDemocrats “care more about people like [them].”
\n\u25cb There is little evidence to suggest that uncommitted voters are on the fence
\nbecause they align more with Republicans than with Democrats on “social”
\nissues. A healthy majority of the persuadable voters in our analysis opposed the
\nSupreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade. A majority found an attack on
\nDemocrats related to \u201cDefund the Police\u201d to be unconvincing. On the question of
\nwhich party better represents their religious values, a plurality of persuadables
\ndidn\u2019t see a difference between the parties. Meanwhile, persuadable Latinos are
\neven more likely to prioritize the economy and cost of living than strong
\npartisans. The economy remains at the heart of the election for Latino voters.
\n\u25cb No two elections, or electorates, are the same. A wildcard on the margins of this
\nelection is new voters. Young Dem-supporting Latinos are fast-growing and
\nmoving into the electorate, while Latino men of all ages are leading the
\ncontingent of less-regular Latino voters who are joining Republicans.
\n8. Especially Worth Watching, the Spanish-Dominant: Some of the highest undecided
\nrates are among those Latinos who prefer to communicate in Spanish. For all the talk of
\na Republican push for Latinos, Democrats are outspending the GOP in
\nSpanish-language ads, and it has had an effect in polling. But the investment is still not
\nwhere it could be, and there are lots of uncommitted Spanish-speakers left to compete
\nfor.
\n9. Don’t Blame Disinformation: It is factually inaccurate and strategically misguided to
\npresume that lies found online are solely or even mostly to blame for the shifts in the
\nLatino vote. Disinformation is best thought of and addressed as a problem for
\ndemocracy, not for Democrats. In the political arena, Democrats \u2014 and Republicans \u2014
\nshould instead worry about voters receiving one-sided communication, whether those
\nnarratives are truthful or not, and focus on meeting voters where they consume
\ninformation.
\nEquis is a set of organizations working to create a better understanding of Latinos, innovate
\nnew approaches to reach and engage them, and invest in the leadership and infrastructure for
\nlong-term change and increased engagement.
\nThe analysis on this memo relies on Equis polling, digital testing, and focus groups over the
\nlast year, starting with our Key States Series: state-level polls in 10 states between December
\n2021 and August 2022, totaling more than 16,000 interviews.
\nThe research used in this memo was conducted in partnership with EMC Research, GBAO,
\nNormington Petts, Searchlight Research, TargetSmart, and Castillo & Associates. Additional
\ndata provided by Catalist. Economic messaging recommendations based on an Equis poll
\nconducted by Avalanche Insights, and on work from the Winning Jobs Narrative and Somos
\nVotantes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Equis Research Where the Latino Vote is Today: The Latino vote remains stuck in the 2020 moment. Many Latino voters who in past elections have voted with Democrats are today persuadable \u2014 but Republicans have so far failed to win them over. \u25cf While Latinos shifted toward Republicans between 2016 and 2020, an 8-point<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_rtcl_gb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"wf_post_folders":[105],"class_list":["post-4465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"aioseo_notices":[],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote-150x117.jpg",150,117,true],"medium":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"large":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"rtcl-gallery":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"rtcl-thumbnail":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"rtcl-gallery-thumbnail":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote-150x105.jpg",150,105,true],"psacp-medium":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote.jpg",261,117,false],"rpwe-thumbnail":["https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/vote-45x45.jpg",45,45,true]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"LaPrensa Newspaper","author_link":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/author\/laprensa\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Articles<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"By Equis Research Where the Latino Vote is Today: The Latino vote remains stuck in the 2020 moment. Many Latino voters who in past elections have voted with Democrats are today persuadable \u2014 but Republicans have so far failed to win them over. \u25cf While Latinos shifted toward Republicans between 2016 and 2020, an 8-point","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4465","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4465"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4465\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4466,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4465\/revisions\/4466"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4465"},{"taxonomy":"wf_post_folders","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laprensanewspaper.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/wf_post_folders?post=4465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}